Russia and all Western civilizations are doomed. It's a matter of numbers.
Earlier this year, Mark Steyn commented in depth on the subject in
a column in the Wall Street Journal's Opinion Journal.
Here's what Steyn had to say:
"Most people reading this have strong stomachs, so let me lay it out as baldly as I can: Much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many if not most Western European countries."
He predicts that Western civilization will decline and Islam will dominate in the near future.
What was the basis of his prediction?
Falling birth rates in the Western world and increasing birth rates in third-world, mainly Islamic countries.
Steyn continues:
"...the hard data on babies around the Western world is that they're running out a lot faster than the oil is. 'Replacement' fertility rate--i.e., the number you need for merely a stable population, not getting any bigger, not getting any smaller--is 2.1 babies per woman. Some countries are well above that: the global fertility leader, Somalia, is 6.91, Niger 6.83, Afghanistan 6.78, Yemen 6.75. Notice what those nations have in common?
Scroll way down to the bottom of the Hot One Hundred top breeders and you'll eventually find the United States, hovering just at replacement rate with 2.07 births per woman. Ireland is 1.87, New Zealand 1.79, Australia 1.76. But Canada's fertility rate is down to 1.5, well below replacement rate; Germany and Austria are at 1.3, the brink of the death spiral; Russia and Italy are at 1.2; Spain 1.1, about half replacement rate. That's to say, Spain's population is halving every generation. By 2050, Italy's population will have fallen by 22%, Bulgaria's by 36%, Estonia's by 52%."
There is evidence that Western nations are recognizing this trend.
The New York Times has a
story in today's paper with the headline, "Putin Urges Plan to Reverse Slide in the Birth Rate."
According to the article:
"President Vladimir V. Putin directed Parliament on Wednesday to adopt a 10-year program to stop the sharp decline in Russia's population, principally by offering financial incentives and subsidies to encourage women to have children."
and
"In 2004, for every 16 Russians who died, only 10.4 babies were born...Birthrates have also plummeted, falling from an average of 2.63 children per woman in 1958 and 1959, to 1.89 children in 1990 and to 1.34 children in 2004."
Putin suggests, "increasing government subsidies for children up to 18 months to about $53 a month for a first child and about $107 for a second child. Mothers currently receive about $25 a month for a child up to 18 months old...(and)...maternity leaves as long as 18 months that would pay a mother at least 40 percent of her salary, and compensation for some of the cost of day care: 20 percent of the cost for a first child, 50 percent for a second child and 70 percent for a third.
For mothers who choose not to return to work, he proposed a one-time subsidy of about $8,900 upon the birth of a second child — a large sum here. He suggested subsidies for adoptive parents as well, and investments in prenatal care, maternity hospitals and kindergartens."
Putin recognizes that Russia, which has its own problems with militant Islamic groups, may be bred out of existence.
It's all a matter of simple math.
