Does Al Qaeda Get Its Ideas from Tom Clancy?

Follow my reasoning on this:

1) So, the Super Bowl’s on my mind. The Seahawks will play my former favorite team of all-time, the Steelers. Such a matchup couldn’t have happened before the Seahawks switched to the NFC, but now, it’s a dream come true.

On Sunday, February 5, in the All-American city of Detroit, Michigan, we’ll watch my Seahawks beat my Steelers. It’ll be a bittersweet day.

2) Going back in time, to 09/11/2001:

After watching two 767s crash into the World Trade Center and seeing the damage from the 757 that plowed into the Pentagon, I couldn’t help thinking of the Tom Clancy novel, Debt of Honor, published in 1994.

If you haven’t read the book, it’s about a modern-day war between Japan and the United States. In the shocking finale of the book, a grieving, vengeful Japanese commercial pilot intentionally crashes a 747 into the U.S. Capitol building, killing almost all of Congress and the President.

3) There’s another Clancy book called The Sum of All Fears. (There’s a movie too, but it stars Ben Affleck, so I suggest you avoid it).

In the book, an Israeli nuclear bomb is lost during the 1973 Yom Kippur War and eventually ends up in the hands of a terrorist organization.

(In case you didn’t know, the Yom Kippur War began when Syria and Egypt invaded Israel with probably the largest tank force ever fielded. Outnumbered 10-to-1, Israel soundly defeated the Arab forces with heavy losses on both sides.)

The Super Bowl plays a prominent role in the book. The terrorists use their recovered nuclear bomb to vaporize Mile High Stadium during the game.

4) On 01/06/2006, al Qaeda’s second-in-command, Ayman al Zawahiri, released a video tape that some analysts believe is a “green light” for a major terrorist attack in the near future; some analysts say within 30 days.

5) On 01/19/2006, Osama bin Laden came out of his cave to release another best-selling audio tape on al Jazeera. Based on the contents, there’s speculation of a strong likelihood of an Al Qaeda attack on U.S. soil sometime in the near future.

6) Do you see where I’m going? A week from today, the Super Bowl will be played in Detroit. That is definitely in the 30-day window mentioned above. If al Qaeda has already stolen an idea from one Tom Clancy book, why not steal another? It sure is easier than thinking them up on their own.


I’m not predicting anything, but it’s interesting to think about. I pray nothing bad happens, at the Super Bowl or anywhere else in the United States.

But I will make one prediction: Seahawks 37, Steelers 17. Oh, and 110 rushing yards for Shaun Alexander and 300+ yards passing for Matt Hasselbeck.

It’s probably just my subconscious trying to console me about not going to Detroit and having to watch the game at home…

Zawahiri New Mouthpiece for Leadership of U.S. Democratric Party

Ayman Al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's 2nd-in-command, released a videotape two weeks ago that includes the following quotes:

1) "You remember I told you more than a year ago that the American withdrawal from Iraq is only a matter of time, and here they are now ... negotiating with the mujahedeen."

2) "Bush was forced at the end of last year to announce that he will pull out his forces from Iraq, but he was giving excuses for his withdrawal that the Iraqi forces have reached a good level."

(Forced by what? Political pressure from Democratic leadership. Apparently, Zawahiri is happy that some Americans are pushing for a course of action that supports al Qaeda's cause.)

3) American forces "with their planes, missiles, tanks and fleets are mourning and bleeding, seeking for a getaway from Iraq."

(I think Zawahiri is confusing American forces with the leaders of the Democratic party and columnists at the New York Times. Our soldiers want to stay until the job is finished. John Murtha, Howard Dean and John Kerry are "seeking a getaway". Zawahiri must be reading our newspapers and watching our news channels to learn the wonderful things these guys are saying.)

4) "Regarding your withdrawal timetable ... you have to admit, Bush, that you have been defeated in Iraq and are being defeated in Afghanistan and will be defeated in Palestine."

Ah yes. The infamous withdrawal timetable. President Bush has made it clear that he will not set an arbitrary timetable. The President's "timetable" is not based on time, but is instead based on achieving certain milestones in Iraq.

For President Bush's complete plan, follow this link:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/iraq/iraq_strategy_nov2005.html

So here's what Howard Dean has to say about troop withdrawals in Iraq:
"I think we need a strategic redeployment over a period of two years. Bring the 80,000 National Guard and Reserve troops home immediately."

Uh-huh. Sounds like what Zawahiri wants.

And John Kerry:
At least 100,000 troops could be withdrawn by this time next year. "[You could] bring it down somewhere in the vicinity of 30,000 to 40,000. And then see where you are."

To Kerry's credit, he also added:
He "would not do it on a fixed, automatic timetable. It has to be results coordinated."


So it looks like prominent leaders of the Democratic party are pushing a strategy that is making Zawahiri a very happy man.

And He Invented the Internet Too!

Here's an excerpt from Osama bin Laden's latest audio tape:

"We were patient fighting the Soviet Union with small humble arms for ten years and we depleted their economy till they vanished, all praise be to Allah."

So now Osama's claiming credit for the downfall of the Soviet Union.

I hear he also helped the Red Sox beat the Curse of the Bambino and win the 2004 World Series...

2004 Presidential Election Map

Just for grins, I thought I'd post the county-by-county map for the 2004 Presidential election.

The red counties went for George W. Bush and the blue counties went for John Kerry.

(To minimize the amount of indignant e-mails I may receive, I know that it's the number of votes that count and many of the red counties are sparsely populated. But it's still an interesting map.)

The Federal Budget Deficit and You

I am concerned with the federal budget deficit. I think it is spiraling out of control. Many local and state government budgets are also in the red.

I am concerned with the economy. I think our economy is not growing in a healthy manner.

And I am a Republican.

The state of the deficit and the economy is neither a Republican problem or a Democrat problem.

I believe it is partly a cultural problem.

Our culture has changed from my parent’s generation, who were extremely reluctant to take on any debt, to “Generation Y”, who seem to use credit for everything.

The U.S. government is made up of U.S. citizens. Our government reflects our thinking and our culture.

How can we, the American people, expect our government to live within its means when we can’t live within ours?

For all the people who say we are mortgaging our children’s future with the ballooning federal deficit:

- How much debt do you carry?
- Did you do a cash-out refinance on your mortgage?
- Do you have an interest-only loan on your house?
- Did you do an 80/20 mortgage so you wouldn’t have to pay PMI?
- Do you lease your car?
- Did you take out a "no payments until 2007" loan to buy that plasma TV?
- Do you have a home equity loan?
- Do you carry a balance on your credit cards month-to-month?
- Is your car loan longer than 36 months?
- What percentage of your take-home income is spent servicing your debt?
- Do you save more than 10% of your income?

I believe if we change our culture from being debt-based to being savings-based, our local, state and federal governments will change with us.

But it all starts with you.

Buyers Use Margin Loans to Buy Real Estate

During the internet stock bubble of 1999-2000, there was a great hullabaloo about how many people used margin loans (borrowed money from their broker) to buy stocks.

At the time, many newspaper articles quoted people saying things like, “That’s crazy! I’d never use margin (borrow money) to buy something as risky as stocks.”

Yet many of the people who would never use margin loans to buy stocks use margin loans to buy real estate.

Say what?

To clarify, for stocks, there are different margin requirements depending on what stock you are buying. Some stocks are not marginable; you cannot borrow money against them to buy more stocks. For the strongest stocks, you can borrow up to roughly 3 times your money.

For example, if you want to buy Microsoft stock, you are required to have 30% equity. So if you have $10,000, you can buy up to $33,333 worth of Microsoft. Your 30% equity is collateral for the 70% that you borrow.

That’s a leverage ratio (LR) of approximately 3-to-1.

“That’s nuts!” some people might say. “If the stock drops 30%, I’ll lose all my money!”

That’s very true.

Yet, people buy real estate every day using leverage ratios much higher than 3-to-1.

If you put a 20% down payment on a house purchase, your LR is 5-to-1.

If you put 10% down, the LR is 10-to-1.

If you put 5% down, the LR is 20-to-1.

If you put 0% down, the LR is infinity.

The scary part is very few home buyers today put 20%, or even 10%, down.

To continue, if you put 20% down and your LR is 5-to-1 and your house price drops 20%, you lose 100% of your money.

If you put 5% down and your house price drops 5%, you lose 100% of your money.

With stocks, the most you can lose is 100% of your money. With real estate “margin”, your losses aren't limited to 100% of your money. You can lose 100%, 200%, 300% of your money. This is especially true if you put very little money down.

But, real estate is different, right? Real estate prices always go up. Stocks are pieces of paper. Real estate is REAL. You can see it, touch it, live in it.

I agree with everything except that real estate is different and that prices always go up. Real estate is a commodity. Real estate prices are subject to the same supply and demand forces as any other economic product.

Is there a housing bubble? I don't know.

But I do know 2006 should be an interesting year.

The Genius of TV Network Executives

So, there's this new show on NBC called "The Book of Daniel". I can just see the network executives in their board room discussing this show (hypothetically, since I wasn't invited to the meeting).


FADE IN:

INT. - A FANCY CORPORATE BOARD ROOM - DAY

Three men, obviously executive businessmen, are sitting around a large glass-topped conference table.

Executive #1 (the Big Man, the Head Honcho):
“We need a show that appeals to all those religious nuts who voted Republican in the 2004 election. The polls showed that ‘moral values’ are important to these wackos.”

Executive #2:
“How about this? We can have a show about a priest! Except, instead of focusing on the purity of his faith, we can make him sort of nutty, you know, like that chick in ‘Joan of Arcadia’ who was always talking to God.”

Executive #3:
“Yeah! We don’t want to be copycats, so maybe the priest can talk to Jesus instead of God. Nobody can prove that God exists, but I think they're pretty sure Jesus was a real person."

Executive #2:
“Doesn’t that firefighter on ‘Rescue Me’ talk to Jesus?”

Executive #3 (dismissing the comment with a wave of his hand):
“Yeah, but the Jesus on that show was married to Mary Magdalene. We can’t do it on our show ‘cause that’ll piss off the Jesus freaks. Don’t you remember ‘The Last Temptation of Christ’? Of course, back then, we didn’t realize how many Americans take this Bible crap seriously.”

Executive #1:
“Who cares about ‘Rescue Me’? That’s on cable. Nobody watches cable. Besides, we all know those Jesus freaks are delusional. This will prove it.”

(Rubs his chin as if in deep thought)

“Is there any way we can portray the priest as some sort of hypocrite? You know, all of those Christian-types are hypocrites.”

Executive #2 (eagerly):
“What if we make the priest addicted to prescription drugs?”

Executive #1 (nodding in approval):
"Good, good..."

Executive #3 (feeling competitive with Executive #2):
“Ooh, I know! We can make his son gay! We all know those Christians don’t like gays.”

Executive #2 (glaring at Executive #3):
“What if we make his daughter a drug dealer?”

Executive #1:
“Let’s do all three. And we'll give him an alcoholic wife.”

Executive #3:
“Can’t we throw in a Muslim character? You know, to show the contrast between those hypocritical Christians and a ‘real’ religion?”

Executive #1:
“No, we don’t want to risk offending the Muslim community. Let’s just stick with the Christian nutcase.”

(Bangs the table in triumph)

“Perfect! We have an alcoholic, a homosexual, a drug dealer and a prescription drug addict who is a Christian priest. That leaves us open to all kinds of current and topical plots. Plus, the reviewers will call it 'edgy'.”

(Laughs)

“This should appeal to those right-wing nutjobs. We’ll show them ‘moral values’!”


So that's how a new show gets a "Go" in Hollywood. (OK, so maybe that's not exactly how it works, but it's fun to speculate, eh?)